Nintendo Cautiously Forecasts Switch 2 Sales Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Nintendo has released a cautious sales forecast for the Nintendo Switch 2, projecting 15 million units and 45 million game sales for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. The Switch 2 is set to hit the market on June 5. This conservative estimate comes amidst ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs.

In its financial statement released today, Nintendo noted that its forecast is based on the assumption that the U.S. tariffs implemented on April 10 will remain unchanged throughout the fiscal year. However, the company acknowledged that any alterations to these tariffs could impact the forecast. “We will continue to monitor the situation to respond to changes in market conditions,” Nintendo stated.

Daniel Ahmad, Director of Research & Insights at Niko Partners, described the 15 million sales target as "conservative." In a tweet, Ahmad suggested that Nintendo's forecast likely accounts for uncertainties around tariffs, pricing, and production, despite the strong momentum in pre-orders. He further noted that Nintendo might adjust its forecast upward should the tariff situation improve. However, Ahmad highlighted that the current challenges already set in motion could complicate the console's launch, especially with the looming threat of increased tariffs.

It's noteworthy that achieving 15 million sales in the first year would position the Switch 2 among the most successful console launches ever, surpassing the original Switch's first-year sales of 14.87 million units.

Demand for the Switch 2 appears to be exceptionally high. Following a delay caused by tariffs, pre-orders for the console opened on April 24, maintaining the price at $449.99. The response was overwhelming, as expected. Additionally, Nintendo has cautioned U.S. customers who pre-ordered through the My Nintendo Store that delivery on the release date is not guaranteed due to the intense demand.

For more detailed information, check out IGN's Nintendo Switch 2 pre-order guide.